What will happen to UK property market in post-Stamp Duty holiday world?

ended 24. June 2021

On 30th June 2021, the first phase of the Stamp Duty holiday ends. There has been a lot of debate as to what happens next: will the property market implode or will it take things in its stride? Below are the views of experts from around the UK.

9 responses from the Newspage community

"Many sceptics expect the property market to implode once the first phase of the Stamp Duty holiday comes to an end on the 30th of June. I personally wish they would scrap Stamp Duty altogether to enable more mobility within the property market. "There is still the second phase of the holiday, which is in effect until the 30th of September. This is still useful for many parts of the country outside the M25 and also many first-time buyers. I can't see a cliff-edge drop and believe the property market will take the end of the Stamp Duty holiday in its stride."
"There’s been far too much talk about the property market crashing when the Stamp Duty holiday ends but it’s just not going to happen. "Of course transaction volumes will decrease slightly due to the Stamp Duty holiday pushing more purchases into a tight timeframe but in reality there’s a chronic shortage of homes for the number of people that are in a stampede to buy them, so anyone sitting on the sidelines rubbing their hands expecting a price correction is going to be disappointed."
“The market will take the end of the stamp duty holidayon the chin and keep marching onwards. “With hordes of potential buyers for every property hitting the market, even those sales that do fall out of bed will be snapped up very quickly. Buyers are champing at the bit for property. “If anything, the stamp duty holiday spectacularly did its job to get the market moving after the first lockdown but it is now causing more problems than it solves, creating an artificial bottle neck that is now preventing other transactions from going through as conveyancers have been swamped by people trying to hit this deadline.”
Star Quote
"While no one can predict the future, we should look back to last year and note that the initial driver of activity was not the Stamp Duty holiday but the end of lockdown 1.0. It's fair to say that the Stamp Duty holiday prolonged this surge but the pandemic has fundamentally changed the aspirations of purchasers, many of whom are looking for properties with space that are located away from the hustle and bustle. And there's also that ever-present, the chronic lack of stock."
"Without doubt, the Stamp Duty holiday has been driving the property market. Overall, I would expect activity levels in the next few months to drop off significantly. That said, for high value properties, we have seen an increase in enquiries from High Net Worth clients abroad. With the restrictions fully easing in the next few months, I think demand for prime property will continue to increase. The Stamp Duty relief doesn't make a material difference for this demographic."
"The property market is likely to slow down to more normal levels over the coming months but it won't stop because there is still huge demand from buyers. The Government timed its low deposit lender support scheme to kick in when the Stamp Duty window finishes and the plan is working because there are a lot more five and ten per cent deposit mortgages. For the moment the pricing is more expensive than it was but it will improve."
“In order for the property market to slump there needs to be a surplus level of supply and a lack of demand, so as much as there is likely to be a dip in demand when the stamp duty relief reduces in July, it’s unlikely to be enough to cause an impact, as there is already a wide lack of properties for sale due to the recent surge in purchases. “Historically, the property market has shown itself to be resilient and it will be no different this time. However, there are likely to be some pinch points and those selling more expensive properties after June may have significantly reduced interest as would-be buyers sit in the new homes they bought in the spring.”
"It's way too early to predict what the impact of the end of the Stamp Duty holiday will be. The market has momentum over and above the bells and whistles of Government influence and, while the scheme was a “nice to have", it certainly wasn’t a “must have” for many. "The cost of borrowing is still way too attractive to limit the appetite of the consumer. Time will tell how long that lasts but for now I would suggest the market is strong and showing no signs of slowing dramatically beyond the usual ad hoc seasonal influences."
"Despite the doom-mongers, this is not a time of implosion. The property market is as strong as ever and a more sensible prediction is that after the Stamp Duty deadline has passed, we'll likely see more of a soft landing and slowed activity levels. "We may also see more of a culture of 'improve rather than move'. As the economy recovers, those who were able to save during the pandemic may consider finally getting round to that loft extension or revamping the family bathroom."