Telegraph seeking urgent property market comment

ended 11. June 2021

A journalist at the Daily Telegraph is writing an article on what could be the crack (or cracks) that bring the housing market down. The piece isn't saying there will necessarily be a crash, but rather asking what the red flags are that we should look out for. 

 

9 responses from the Newspage community

Star Quote
"The biggest red flag is how the hell house prices have managed to rise at the fastest pace in decades to the highest levels ever seen at the same time as we have been on the wrong end of the biggest economic hit in modern history. It just doesn’t make sense. The property market could be facing a perfect storm when the Stamp Duty holiday ends and if unemployment rises sharply once the furlough scheme draws to a close."
"I believe we are likely to see a reduction in market activity as the Stamp Duty Holiday ends and that, in turn, means that estate agents may try encouraging sellers to reduce the sale price of their home. The net result of these combined factors means fewer and lower value transactions. This will feed into the blind-data narrative that there is an issue with the housing market, which is likely to have a negative effect on confidence — a self-fulfilling prophecy if you will."
"A rise in interest rates would impact everyone who has borrowed when they were low and, as happened in the late 80s, would flood the market with properties no one can afford. In the more immediate future, the withdrawal of the Stamp Duty holiday is bound to have an effect on the market with sellers being forced to lower their prices. Anecdotally, many of our older homeowners are keen to move out of London and downsize but are struggling to secure serious buyers, many of whom are requesting ridiculous discounts of 20% or more."
"At the moment there seems to be no real sign of the bubble bursting. Many people are are going to be caught out with a hefty Stamp Duty bill as people rush to complete before the upcoming deadline. "Demand has shown no signs of slowing and, with a lack of properties on the market, the bun fight continues, with people stretching their affordability and credit. The ongoing rise in house prices has all the warning signs of of another crash."
"Property prices are booming and demand from buyers has kept agents and brokers on their toes for months. "But as we approach an uncertain Freedom Day, the end of the furlough scheme approaching, and with the Stamp Duty deadline just around the corner, the market hangs in the balance. "Nothing is certain, but these factors could be the cracks we start to see in the next few months."
"How far can house prices keep going? There just has to be a point at which affordability implodes. We know that the majority of mortgage lenders get very twitchy when a customer wants to borrow more than 4.5 times income and, if we reach that point, things can't keep moving ever upward."
"Many people predicted house prices would crash when the pandemic hit and they got it completely wrong. The market has shown how resilient it is through arguably the worst economic crisis ever. Of course the Stamp Duty holiday played a big role in pushing prices up but as we near the end of restrictions, I believe there is still a long way to go. There is a huge amount of activity from people looking to move home to suit their new lifestyles which have been shaped by COVID and a neverending stream of first-time buyers. Add to that the fact lenders are as keen as ever and the Government are continuously looking for new housing initiatives, the outlook for the property market is very exciting."
"The impact of an economic slump on stock markets around the world will surely affect the wealth of those looking for their million pound plus second homes in the South West. "With the average price of a Salcombe home wavering just under the million pound mark, we are living in extraordinary times. There is undoubtedly a pin around the corner ready to burst the property bubble."
"We've seen one year of sales crammed into the past six months, which has driven house prices up sharply. As the Stamp Duty holiday reduces after June, we may see house prices come down due to weaker demand. If demand tails off, lenders will not be as aggressive and we could see interest rates increase, which will again cool, if not crack, the market."