Nationwide House Price Index July 2021

ended 27. July 2021

On Wednesday morning @ 07:00, the Nationwide is publishing its July house price index. We'll be issuing your thoughts to the local and national media. So:

  • What happened to the market in July? Has it been quieter or busier?
  • What impact did Freedom Day have on activity levels?
  • Is the rate of price growth going to increase, decrease or flatline during H2?
  • Who's most active in the market at present, e.g. landlords or FTBs, or upsizers?
  • Could rising unemployment hole prices under the waterline?

And so on and so forth….

Please keep your response to no more than 2 paragraphs. Think soundbites, not essays!

If you're a Premium user, your response will be edited to ensure it is as strong as possible and grammatically tight. Premium alert_responses also go towards the top of the viewsWire and are more likely to be seen by journalists.

7 responses from the Newspage community

Star Quote
"July has pretty much been business as usual and Freedom Day hasn't had any impact so far. People piling into boozers at scale doesn't appear to have impacted demand for bricks and mortar. That said, the rate of price growth has definitely decreased and it's likely to flatline during H2, partly due to the end of the Stamp Duty holiday, and partly because the recent rate of price growth is simply unsustainable. "We're seeing more first-time buyers trying to take their first step onto the property ladder because there are currently more high loan-to-value mortgages than there have been for quite some time. First-time buyers are acting now before the window potentially closes. "Anyone looking to buy should apply a little caution and try not to pay over the odds for a home because if unemployment rises sharply it could have an effect on both house prices and the cost of living overall."
Star Quote
"The main impact of Freedom Day in July has been to fuel demand for property viewings among those who were previously hesitant. "The market in July was as busy as ever and with the unprecedented lack of stock, don't expect prices to fall. "I can’t see price growth continuing at its recent rate in the second half of the year due to the first phase of the Stamp Duty holiday ending, but the sheer number of first-time buyers will keep prices ticking along comfortably. "The most active people in the housing market at present are first-time buyers and families who, during the lockdowns of the past 16 months, have realised they need a little more space. "Mass unemployment when the furlough scheme ends could have a massive impact on house prices so people need to be absolutely sure they're not overpaying on a property."
"Despite the heat, the property market showed no sign of wilting in July. In fact, with the Euros no longer a distraction, the potential slowdown after the Stamp Duty holiday rush didn't take place. "Activity levels are primarily being driven by first-time buyers, many of whom will do their utmost to avoid the punitive rents being charged. Right now, finding a decent rental property can be more cut-throat than the sales market."
"July has seen a marked easing in activity from the madness before it. That's not to say it is quiet, but rather that it's not as frantic as before, with the reduced Stamp Duty holiday now in effect. Activity is being driven by a broad range of buyers, ranging from home movers and first-time buyers to landlords. "The reduced limit of £250000 will certainly have more of a cooling impact in the South, but further North and in the Midlands the limit is still covering a huge range of property; meaning the reduction has done less to slow activity there. "Overall, I'd expect to see a reduction in house price growth as the Stamp Duty holiday unwinds and, without further stimulus, we're likely to see a plateauing of prices towards the end of the year and into 2022. We certainly won't see a drop in prices, just a lack of growth at the current rate."
"As expected, the majority of the market has been quieter in July as the Stamp Duty relief has been reduced. "However, there is still strong demand for clients looking to purchase a second or holiday home in the country or by the sea. For High Net Worth clients, in fact, it seems to be a priority. The staycation is here to stay and is set to have a material impact on house prices in the most sought-after areas."
"The first half of July was noticeably quieter but this happens every year as families prepare for the schools to break up, and then you have the Euros on top. In other words, we shouldn't assume reduced activity levels were a result of the Stamp Duty deadline. "The level of enquiries we've been getting has actually increased significantly since then, predominantly with first-time buyers who are finally getting a look in now the competition has reduced. "It's unlikely house prices will continue to rise now that the amount of prospective buyers has decreased but there is certainly enough interest to prevent prices dropping as we head into the second half of the year."
"In July, the demand for properties outstripped supply to an extent I have never seen before. It really is a sellers' market currently, with houses regularly being sold within 24 hours of hitting the market for well beyond the asking price. One estate agent we work with even commented she had no properties currently available last week, with some potential buyers even now making offers before they even book a viewing. "As we move into the second half of the year, the market only shows signs of hotting up. Enquiries for holiday lets in the UK continued to increase across July as the staycation boom looks set to continue well into next year and beyond, while an army of first-time buyers remains desperate to get onto the housing ladder as prices continue to soar across many regions."