Halifax House Price Index - October

ended 04. November 2021

At the sparrow's fart tomorrow, the grubby narrative that is house prices will be back in the news. Like the Nationwide, the Halifax have suddenly decided to start releasing their data at Stupid O'clock (7am) so your views will need to be over today (maybe wait until after the rate decision at midday). Sample Qs to answer:

  • What happened to the property market in October?
  • What are you predicting moving forward?
  • What will happen to demand if the Bank of England raises rates today?
  • If inflation spirals and Threadneedle Street raises bank rate to 3%+, is the property market set for a spectacular hiding?
  • Describe the aroma of coffee (optional Wittgenstein question).

No waffle, 3-4 sentences max. 

4 responses from the Newspage community

Despite the end of the stamp duty holiday and interest rate rises, the core drivers of the property market remain the same. Too many buyers chasing too few properties, and a government who, like others before them, seem determined to support the property market through thick and thin.
Interestingly in Manchester I've seen my clients get their hands on a few properties after the asking price has been slashed by ten to twenty thousand from the asking price. It suggests the market has calmed down up here and sellers aren't able to be as cheeks as they were being a few months ago and those properties didn't get much interest at their original asking price. Buyers are will always look for value and are not getting carried away with some of the huge inflation we've seen in the last 12 months any longer.
The base rate being held at 0.1% will be a welcome relief for homeowners and calm financial markets, most of which had bet big, on a rate rise. The property market remains incredibly buoyant, and October transaction levels for us were where we'd expect them to be. Will prices continue to rise at the current pace? No. Will there be a property crash? Unlikely. The feeling from the BoE must be that the current levels of inflation are temporary and transient; let's hope they are correct. However, with anything to do with the economy and property market, whereof one cannot speak, thereof one must be silent.
Well, for all the drama of a "knife edge" decision the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Commitee voted 7-2 to hold their interest rate at 0.1% for another month. However, the MPC did take the opportunity to say that increases will be coming soon. October has been pretty busy from a mortgage brokers perspective, but no where near the madness of the summer (thankfully!). So I am expecting property prices to remain stable or increase marginally over the next few months, as opposed to any further record breaking highs. I cannot see a crash in the property market unless the mortgage rug is pulled from under it; be that lenders taking a super cautious lending approach (as we saw during the credit crunch), or with a sharp uptick in interest rates. Neither of which I would put money on happening, at least not to the extent that would impact peoples desire or ability to buy property.