Daily Telegraph seeking urgent views....

ended 02. June 2021

A journalist at the Telegraph wants quick alert_responses to the Qs below for a story due to run today.

  1. Is the property market about to pop and how exposed are the banks? Could the BoE curb them from expanding / lending further?
  2. What do you expect to happen over the coming year? Nationwide has just announced a 0.99pc mortgage, with others expected to follow. What are the concerns? Could this be a rerun of the 2008 crash?

Deadline is ASAP. Go go go!

8 responses from the Newspage community

Star Quote
"Without a doubt we are into bubble territory, however the the Bank of England have to be very careful. We need interest rates to rise at some point to constrain inflation when it does return, or to cool down the housing market but so many people are so leveraged it's an incredibly fine balancing act. In the event that there is a re-run of 2008, we don't have any get out of jail free cards... "I suspect that the housing market will begin to cool as the stamp duty holiday comes to an end, along with the unwinding of the furlough scheme. With rate wars clearly starting again I would urge caution as these deals are meant simply to grab headlines: they often come with hefty fees and typically aren't all they are cracked up to be."
"The property market has been a massive bull market for the past year despite potentially the most bearish economic backdrop ever. Lenders have been acting as a brake already and it is clients' equity that has gone on to drive the market. "The people at greatest risk are those buying new build flats with higher loan to value mortgage;, this niche is the highest risk and perhaps lenders should not ease their criteria here to protect clients and themselves. "The way the Bank of England would usually tackle this is to raise interest rates, but this seems unlikely unless inflation comes, but that adds pressure to house prices as well. "We all continue to look for the cracks in the market but as yet they aren't showing. Lenders offering rates at near-zero interest add to this, but the wiser heads are looking at the longer term deals which are priced so much lower than ever before and will help anyone ride out any market issues."
"It is tough to predict what will happen to the property market in the coming months. Many predicted house prices would drop last year. However, they have increased across the country and at a higher rate in areas outside of cities. "The banks initially stopped higher loan-to-value products; this was partly due to service issues but also protected them from exposure to potential price reductions. They have now started offering these products again, showing that they have confidence the market will at least stay level or continue to rise. "The competition for pricing is fierce: we have seen some lenders start to reduce their rates. Interestingly, a lot of lenders are more competitive for larger loans. We have noticed that more retail banks are offering great rates on loans above £1m. We have also been able to negotiate better rates with private banks at the higher end."
"The property market is super buoyant right now with more buyers than sellers so properties are selling for a premium, making it a sellers' market. I can see the market maintaining a degree of momentum with lockdown restrictions easing and people returning to work and having the ability to obtain a mortgage. "The Bank of England could raise the base rate from 0.1% at the next Monetary Policy Committee announcement, which will be made on Thursday 24 June 2021 but many lenders have already adjusted rates at the higher loan-to-values that are deemed riskier for borrowers with 5% or 10% deposits. I expect rates to remain competitive over the coming year for those with larger deposits as this is where a lot of lenders are focusing their attention."
"The banks are in a feisty price war and their profit margins are ever-shrinking. This is all measured from the lowest Bank of England base rate in history, which leaves the banks in a vulnerable position if there were to be a significant rise in interest rates. "Lenders will continue to price themselves against the cheap borrowing that could leave them further exposed and unable to cope if they haven't accounted for an increase in repossessions and missed payments by over-stretched borrowers."
"Experienced Mortgage Advisers can feel a crumbling property market in the air. All I can feel now is that the Sun is shining." "England has pent up demand and such little supply in the right places. With good access to credit and seemingly stable employment numbers. The foundations are currently strong." "A return to 2008 is far-off, then and now credit was available. The distinction is more stringent affordability requirements."
"A summer slump is possible once the Stamp Duty deadlines have passed, but the UK mortgage market - like a runaway train - has shown no sign of slowing just yet. "March, April and May have been exceptionally busy for lenders, with huge pressure to push sales through thanks to Government-backed incentives for buyers, and now banks and other lenders are offering higher LTVs. "The cliff edge will be when the furlough scheme ends: there's no doubt this scheme has disguised and abated future unemployment, which may also pose a threat to the market and to banks."
"It is not about bank exposure, it is about cultural exposure and we are all culpable in that respect, as all our fingers are on the collective trigger. "The risk is not about whether housing will go pop, it will be whether the wider economy can cope with fast-approaching headwinds. The debate should never be about "how much your house if worth", it should always be about "can you afford your mortgage payment?" "I would suggest we are set for a low interest rate environment for some time yet - Japan is that particular canary down the coal mine."